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Short and medium term outcomes for the Mindoro fishery

According to the data sources we used1, the Mindoro yellowfin tuna fishery is not currently overfished. Municipal fishers are able to cover their living costs, the product of their catch is highly prized by consumers worldwide, and commercial fishers are excluded from the coastal waters fished by municipal fishers.

The baseline scenario below reflects the best of our knowledge in this fishery. Compare these results to our pessimistic scenario2 where we show what will happen if current conditions are worse than the scenario below.

Modeling Notes

The following are some of the assumptions reflected here:

Change the length of the simulation to see what the Mindoro tuna fishery might look like at different times in the future

2025 - Fishers could maintain or slightly improve their surplus, but still close to subsistence level

2055 - Profits passed peak and slowly going down

2025 - Stocks slightly down

2055 - Stock starts to show significant drop

2025 - Population slightly up

2055 - 50% more municipal fishers