Near and medium term outcomes for an overfished fishery
Short and medium term outcomes for an overfished fishery
According to the data sources we used1, the Mindoro yellowfin tuna fishery is not currently overfished. However, if we make slightly more pessimistic assumptions, we could see a very different picture. In fact, many small scale fisheries around the world today are in such a vulnerable situation. This scenario explores the future outcomes of such a fishery.
Compare to our more optimistic2 baseline scenario where we show what would happen if the current conditions in Mindoro are sustainable.
The following are some of the assumptions reflected here:
- Increasing consumer demand We expect that global demand for high grade tuna fish is going to keep growing over the years. There will be both an increase in the global demand for food products and a growth of the middle class, which has a preference for carnivorous fish over other species.
- Open access for municipal fishers New fishers can come from other regions and other industries and join in the fishery. No input controls are in place.
- No commercial fishing growth expected Due to regulations protecting municipal fishers, commercial fleets are currently limited in number and excluded from coastal waters.
- No technological improvements Even though fishers use traditional methods, some technological improvements could make their boats more efficient. Such effects are not reflected below. They are reflected where we at technology improvement interventions3.